We’ll be underwater before we can be convinced to sell our beach houses.

The latest information on areas of Victoria to be drowned by rising seas is based on the speculation that the ice in the Arctic and on Greenland will have disappeared by 2050. This timing is way out of date, at least six months old. Three months ago the date was 2020 but now it’s 2013.

These corrections are caused by the study of actual ice melts in the Arctic. Previous calculations have been guessed at, imagining that ice will melt at a certain speed each year. There is no mathematical formulae for the planet’s melting ice. Once it begins it accelerates at an unheard of rate (previously).

The speculation that the next ice sheet in Antartica will be gone in a hundred years (The Guardian Weekly says 300 years but that length of speculation is patently guessing) is simply a figure picked out of the air. Once the planet’s stores of carbon are triggered to release, without hope of delaying the process, the speed will accelerate in the same way the ice melt in the Arctic is travelling. Please also remember that official figures, always prepeared cautiously, have all been wrong.

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